All regressions is dummy variables having census year, battle, ages, condition off birth, and you may cohort of delivery, and you may region of beginning style. Investigation is actually aggregated to state away from birth rozvedenГ­ datovГЎnГ­ lokalit ? year out of beginning ? census seasons telephone setting in the 1st line, however, during the private height into IV regressions. Comprehend the cards so you can Dining table step 1 .

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The newest IV prices mean that the fresh causal outcomes of very early adolescent matrimony and dropout updates to the upcoming impoverishment try ample. The latest baseline quotes imply that marrying young increases the chances good younger bride to be can be into the impoverishment after in life because of the as much as 30 commission things. Dropping out-of senior school has a fairly less, but nonetheless good-sized, eleven commission section impact on coming poverty. Such email address details are sturdy to the level of aggregation, LIML quote, alterations for migration, and you can a running means method. The individual-top OLS prices having very early teen relationship try small, when you find yourself aggregated OLS rates yield an estimate which is of same magnitude as IV prices.

To raised understand why the new IV and you will aggregated OLS rates disagree a whole lot on private-height OLS rates, I today speak about the fresh character from dimensions mistake. Inside census study, years initially matrimony try determined from the reported date off basic wedding and you may day away from birth (few days and you can seasons). Usually one people fills regarding the census means toward entire household. This is exactly probably worsen dimension error since the individual doing the brand new census might not have exact details about most other home members‘ times out of beginning and earliest wedding. Within the 1970 and you can 1980, the newest census mode will teach visitors to “give your very best imagine” whenever possibly ones times is “unknown.” 19

While the fraction off early teen marriages is indeed short, any mismeasurement out of big date of delivery or day out of relationships-the two variables regularly create ages initially wedding-is likely to lead to a highly highest downward prejudice inside the latest OLS imagine of the early teenager ount off dimensions error, new wrongly categorized teenager brides is also outnumber the genuine teen brides, causing reasonable attenuation bias.

To raised see the frequency out of dimension error for the reported dates, take into account the 1975 Federal Virility Survey (NFS). This is the new fifth inside the some surveys held the five years to examine ily think. New interesting ability of questionnaire during the 1975 is the fact that boffins decided to reinterview a selected sample of women on 1970 questionnaire. This new reinterview try includes dos,355 white feamales in their first marriage ceremonies who were consistently married, whoever decades on relationship is less than 25 years, and whose husbands got been already partnered only if. The 1975 and you can 1970 surveys inquire day from birth and you can time out-of first wedding, which have both sets of responses getting submitted regarding 1975 try. So because of it subset of women, I am able to estimate less bound towards the misreports of the comparing new exact same female’s responses more than good five-12 months big date opinions.

Misreporting essentially refuses just like the a female’s claimed ount out-of error during the these types of other teams is modest compared

Table 8 tabulates how many times the new answers on the 1975 questionnaire don’t satisfy the responses on the 1970 survey. For your shot, dates out-of birth don’t consent 4% of time, and schedules off marriage don’t agree several% of the time. The result is one to a good female’s many years in the relationship measured inside the many years cannot make to own eleven% of one’s observations in the sample. Mismatch prices also are stated during the Desk 8 for groupings centered to your a woman’s said relationships years on 1970 questionnaire. Of these marrying on or underneath the age of 15 during the this new 1970 questionnaire, 8% regarding delivery times and thirty-five% regarding relationship dates don’t line-up around the survey years. Because of it category, 39% of implied relationships ages differ across the surveys. The level of dimension mistake on the census tends to end up being actually big once the 1975 NFS tested merely women who got never separated together with lady respond to questions regarding the themselves.